August 16, 2024 (Investorideas.com Newswire) Gold touched $2,500 an oz. for the primary time in historical past in spot buying and selling, whereas COMEX futures reached $2,538.
Gold’s positive aspects right this moment come as extra weak point within the US economic system comes as constructing permits hit a greater than year-low and housing begins fell to a four-year low.
Whereas weaker-than-expected housing market numbers, together with a slew of knowledge this week, might increase hopes for extra price cuts this yr, particularly in September, they haven’t revived the case for a 50-bps lower on the subsequent assembly. In different phrases, an emergency price lower to save lots of the economic system is unlikely after markets appear to have overpriced it. Regardless of that, gold continued its historic positive aspects.
The chance of a 25-basis level lower in September is 76.5% in comparison with 23.5% for a 50-basis level lower, in line with the CME FedWatch Device.
In distinction to the prevailing negativity concerning the well being of the US economic system, we noticed a higher-than-expected improve in shopper confidence right this moment, in line with the College of Michigan’s survey for August. This sentiment was pushed by optimism about private monetary and financial outlook, in line with the survey. This will assist calm fears concerning the US economic system falling into recession, as improved sentiment may result in assist for spending.
Gold might be able to maintain its positive aspects with out important progress within the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza, as they may finally result in defusing a wider regional battle. Nonetheless, whereas yesterday’s negotiations in Qatar didn’t lead to a breakthrough, “some gaps have been narrowed,” in line with US Nationwide Safety Council spokesman John Kirby. In the meantime, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu caught to his demand that his forces stay within the Philadelphi hall, in line with The Washington Publish. The main focus stays on the outcomes of right this moment’s negotiations.
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